Why 2000?

I believe it was my wife who suggested, and I agree with her, that the year 2000 could make peoples like the Amish look especially wise. I had a thought right after that about how they might be considered the Noahs of our day and age. I was thinking about how they have been continuously preparing themselves for a time when Christ will return, by learning to become self-sufficient and to stock-pile goods for a flood of hard times to come. Much like Noah, and his family, everyone just seems to look at them as odd (a square peg in this so-called modern society). People see them walking around in their old-time, seemingly too-modest clothing and seem to sneer, laugh, or shake their heads. Let them say one word intimating an end, and people scoff at them, thinking they must be from another planet (simply out of touch with the times - and I don't mean the newspaper).

The fact is, things are beginning to stir about just how the future may be when the year 2000 arrives. It seems that the so-called modern age, marked by the advent of the computer (and even called the "computer age"), could be flawed in its surge to star trekdom. If ever there was a time when the Scripture is true that says, "I am going to destroy the wisdom of the wise and bring to nothing the understanding of any who understand " (Isaiah 29:14), the approaching of year 2000 is that time. Those brilliant people who brought us the computer age, upon whom we have been piling accolades for decades, might just be the same people whom God uses to usher in a new, more brilliant age.

It seems that the brainy bunch, who first developed computers, and determined the factors upon which they would base calculations, were not brainy enough to think that computers would still be around by the year 2000. Or perhaps, these masters felt that it was sufficient for their day, and perhaps it was, to use the two-digit date method - thinking someone would surely change it as time went by. Or maybe, these stars of the scientific age shared the delusions of their counterparts, who, like those in the days of Noah, did not fear a God in heaven or even believe in one. Like those who still contend that evolution is a fact instead of a theory, thinking that it is wise to eat, drink, and be merry about it all, while the water subtly rises. More likely, these shrewd men of money thought about the extra space it would occupy on the punch cards to have a four-digit date and just knew, somehow, it would be more frugal to only use the last two characters instead.

Whatever the reason for this two-digit date design, it is proving itself to be one of the, if not the largest, errors in the history of the scientific world. In fact, it makes prophecy out of the proverb, "There are ways that some think straight, but they lead in the end to death" (Proverb 14:12). In this case, the way that seemed right may, by the year 2000, lead to the death of many unsuspecting persons. Speculation has it that it may be a catastrophe that could very well bring about a chain of events leading to the end (oops! ..there's that word) and the return of Christ. Well. Of course, only time will tell about such things as that. The truly wise (not the computer experts) know for sure.

The following are some articles I found floating around the Web that were quoted from popular publications and spoken by some prominent people. I have included the following because, I wanted to show that the buzz is not only being exclaimed by dooms-day men with long beards holding signs warning "the end is near."

Article: Threat to the economy of year 2000 problem

Publication: The Indianapolis Star, May 31, 1998.

By SENATOR RICHARD LUGAR

"Many respected economists and technology experts are warning that the inability of computer systems to recognize the simple rollover of the calendar from the year 1999 to the year 2000 has the potential to throw the world economy into a recession, or even a depression.

Could this long anticipated and seemingly benign change of the calendar really devastate our economy, undermine our national security and jeopardize our domestic safety?

The simple answer is yes, it could. It has been extremely difficult to focus the attention of national leadership or the American public on this issue because communications, utility services, early warning systems, or credit checks have yet to stop. We do know, however, that a relatively small percentage of government or private computers have been fixed, and we can expect disruptions in normal life throughout 1999 and into 2000.

Solving this problem depends more on management than on technology. In most cases, the technology required to fix the problem is simple. Because many software applications and computer chips were developed at a time when computer memory space was limited, programmers saved space by using only the last two digits of a year. To a computer program, the "00" in 2000 will be interpreted as 1900.

A fix is needed to expand the date field in programs to four digits rather than two.

Massive Malfunctions

Since many computer programs use dates as reference points, failure to correct this problem could cause massive computer malfunctions and misinterpretations. But the remedy is time-consuming, labor intensive and costly because computer programs often contain millions of lines of code, each of which must incorporate the simple fix.

This task is complicated because chips sometimes are in remote places--such as on satellites orbiting the Earth or on oil drilling equipment at the bottom of the ocean.

With close to half of all computer capacity and more than half of the Intenet assets, the United States is the world's most advanced and dependent user of information technology. Our health, safety, economy and national security are affected by the reliability of our computer systems.

Computers process millions of Social Security checks, tax returns, credit card payments, and utility bills. They operate our air traffic control, telephone, and power systems. They are an avenue of commerce and central nervous system of our defense capabilities. The upheaval that could be caused by the near simultaneous collapse of even 5 percent of our computer systems is incalculable.

Given these potential risks, the U.S. government, industry and citizenry must attack this problem on several fronts.

The federal government must commit the necessary human and financial resources to ensure that its own computers will not malfunction when 2000 arrives. Federal costs to correct the problem are estimated to reach $4.7 billion, and by some accounts, this figure could triple.

As witnesses have testified before the Agriculture Committee, the true cost is not in fixing the problem, but in not doing so. To ensure that changes are made, deadlines have been established to measure progress by government agencies on the year 2000 problem. The ultimate deadline, Jan. l, 2000, is nonnegotiable.

Government must work with the private sector to ensure that business fully understands the gravity of the problem and is taking the necessary steps to prevent year 2000 computer malfunctions. Because vital information flows back and forth between computer systems, failure in one system may lead to failures in others.

A coordinated public/private effort is essential to minimize reverberations of the year 2000 problem throughout our economy.

Finally. the government must undertake a concerted diplomatic effort aimed at moving our allies and trading partners toward their own solutions to this problem. Our prosperity increasingly depends on interactions with other nations. Trade arrangements, international financial transactions and multinational enterprises rely heavily on computers.

Even if the United States succeeds in solving the year 2000 problem within its borders, exports and other vital international economic interactions could be shut down by lagging efforts in other nations. Some countries, including major U.S. trading partners, have taken little action in meeting the year 2000 challenge.

Attention diverted

In Europe, for example, transition to a single currency has posed monumental computer conversion challenges that have taken precedence over preparing for 2000. The financial crisis in Asia has diverted attention on that continent from year 2000 efforts to more immediate concerns.

For the sake of our own economy, we must make certain that these countries mobilize now.

With l9 months remaining [at time of article] until the year 2000, time remains to make corrections. We must solve the problem so that when the new millennium finally arrives, most Americans will ask why anyone expressed concern. Success should be defined as making sure people don't find out first hand."

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Article: A computer bug

Publication: The Indianapolis Star, June 14, 1998.

LEAD EDITORIAL

"It's a storyline worthy of a summer blockbuster: As millions celebrate the turn of the century on Dec. 31, 1999, billions of microchips are silently poised to wreak havoc on utilities, transportation, government services and the social order.

It would be nice to think that the credits will roll, the house lights will rise and the Millennium Bug will have been slain. But don't count on it. The threat appears to be real, and the consequences, possibly far reaching, are uncertain.

Increasingly, reputable leaders in government and industry are warning that we cannot afford to ignore the year 2000 problem, known as Y2K. Correcting it, while not technically difficult, is a huge challenge. That's because of the volume of work and also because processors-- embedded in everything from cash registers to satellites, from elevators to air traffic control systems--must be found and fixed.

The Y2K problem is caused by the use in many computers of a two-digit dating system that assumes 1 and 9 are the first two digits of the year. Without reprogramming, systems will recognize '00' not as 2000 but 1900, which could cause computers to shut down or malfunction.

Many of the predictions of Y2K consequences are dire. Those who take a worst-case view foresee power failures, grounding of airliners, businesses shut down, disruptions of financial markets and even riots as the chaos spreads. Long-term consequences could include a global recession. Those fears may seem overblown, but neither can they entirely be discounted.

'There will be problems. The question is how big will the problems be and how long will they last?' said Bill Pierce, director of the year 2000 office for the state of Indiana.

Pierce is confident state government will be ready when the year 2000 rolls around. His office is assisting 44 state agencies and reviewing progress made by other agencies. He estimates that the task of fixing the state's computers will be completed next May. But he said the state is just starting to identify and correct chips embedded in other machinery.

As for the federal government, the Washington Post has reported that several agencies face a significant risk of critical computer breakdowns. The Office of Management and Budget has reported that as of May 15 more than 60 percent of critical computer systems had not been fully repaired. Former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger has written that the Defense Department is not expected to finish work on its 'mission-critical systems' until 2009.

Even so, the United States is well ahead of most other nations in addressing Y2K problems, including several of our major trading partners.

Business is not escaping the costs of fixing the problem. Many large companies are well under way to reprogramming or replacing microchips. But numerous small businesses are not prepared. A study sponsored by Wells Fargo Bank found that 82 percent of small businesses are at risk for year 2000 problems, but fewer than a third have started to act.

Utilities are at substantial risk. While a spokesman for Ameritech says the phone company is nearing Y2K compliance, Indianapolis Power & Light Co. is hedging on whether its customers might lose power.

'The entire electrical grid of the United States is interconnected. We can't make a 100 percent guarantee that there will not be problems,' IPALCO spokeswoman Marni Lemons said.

A letter sent by IPALCO to anyone who inquires about Y2K problems says that those with critical needs for a continuous supply of power should obtain their own generators. The letter then goes on to say that the company will not be liable if power is lost.

The costs of eradicating the Y2K bug are substantial. The federal government is estimating it will spend $4.9 billion, a figure likely to rise. The state of Indiana has budgeted $87 million to fix its systems. And local leaders recently were told that Indianapolis and Marion County will have to spend more than $10 million.

The cost of failing to act, however, could be even greater. We cannot afford on the way to a new millennium to be tripped by the outdated computer codes of a dying century.

Gored by Y2K

If, as many predict, the year 2000 computer glitch brings with it significant business and social problems, then it won't take long for the public to ask: Who's to blame?

Already insurance companies and law firms are gearing up for a wave of claims and litigation.

Insurers are encouraging businesses to review coverage. Companies are even hawking liability insurance to managers in charge of Y2K fixes.

Lawyers are examining companies' liability if computers fail, the lights go out and shipments are missed. Other lawyers are preparing class-action lawsuits. Analysts estimate that Y2K litigation could run as high as $100 billion.

And then there's Al Gore. The administration's chief advocate of new technology may find himself in the dark politically if the federal government's Y2K problems are severe. In January 2000, Gore likely will be busy campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Republicans already are starting to target Gore. In a recent memo on Y2K, Steve Forbes asked, 'What has the administration's technology point man, Vice President Al Gore, been doing for the past five years?'

Political analysts are saying Gore is trying to distance himself from any potential Y2K problems.

Andrew L. Shapiro of the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University has said, 'Al doesn't want it to be Al's mess.'

More than computers may crash in the year 2000."

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I thought I might give you more articles to examine, however, it was simply too depressing. I hope the above two articles give you a flare for the probable consequence of the Year 2000 problem. Just in case, let me give you a small quote or two from books and the like on the subject.

Book Review: Grim look at 2000 "time bomb" and its aftermath

Publication: Atlanta Business Chronicle, April 13, 1998.

By Terry O'Keefe

" 'Time Bomb 2000' examines the consequences of the collapse of the major delivery systems of our lives: government, transportation, utilities, medicine, banking and food. And the authors conclude that most people could handle a day or a week of crisis, but few are capable of coping with a month or a year of bank holidays or hospital shutdowns, or widespread job layoffs.

So, how big is the problem likely to be? Nobody knows, and nobody will know until midnight of New Year's Eve when the year 'goes live.' But here -- taken from a recent Internet posting - is what Ed Yourdon thinks:

'If Y2K does turn out to be as bad as I think it will be, everyone is going to be concentrating on how to get food, shelter, clothing and the basic necessities of life.

'Y2K threatens all of this, except in the backwards economies that have never depended on automation. Rural China will probably be OK; but in my humble opinion, New York, Chicago,

Atlanta and a dozen other cities are going to resemble Beirut in January 2000. That's why I've moved out of NYC to rural New Mexico a couple months ago.'

You may not welcome the apocalyptic tone of 'Time Bomb 2000.' But you can't say you haven't been warned."

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Another expert volunteered her advice about how to deal with the problem, making it apparent that a crisis is definitely expected, by offering the following advice:

1. No air travel for the first 90 days of 2000 and I'd allow a lot of time if you take public transportation.

2. Get hard copy print outs of all your financial records for all of 1999..INCLUDING pension, Social Security and other retirement records.

3. Take all money you can out of the bank on Dec 31, 1999 and put in a safe place. I don't think I would trust a safety deposit box at the bank unless you are SURE there isn't a date related time lock problem to get into the vault.

4. Lay in a supply of water, candles and alternate heat source, just in case.

5. Be sure you have a full tank of gas. No telling what will happen to those gas pumps.

6. If anything needs to be paid on 1/1/00, be sure it is paid in plenty of time.

7. I would also take heart in the fact that those that aren't ready and have problems after 1/1/00 will be taken over by those who are ready. I believe that there may be a short time of confusion during the first month or two of 2000, then things will become more stable.

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The fact is, we humans are a curious bunch, and therefore there will always be a lot of speculation as to when the Lord will begin to harvest His people. Christians who love the Lord and hate this world long continuously for the end, so that they can go home to be with Him for eternity. But, the question arises, "Why 2000?"

There is no reason to believe that, just because we may have to go through some hard times, on a mass basis, that this is a sign of the end. After all, it didn't happen that way during the World Wars, or during the Holocaust, or the other times in history that could be defined that way. We just went through the times of troubles; some lived and suffered and some died. God never said we would not have to suffer for the things we believe in this world. Many catastrophes have come and gone that were the result of mankind's errors in thinking. After all, we are human, flesh, sinners, and as defective as the computer systems we own.

If anything, we are distracted. If we know that this Year 2000 bug is coming and will wreak havoc on the earth, then what are we called to do? The Lord and God's angels always admonished us not to fear. If anything, I can see this Year 2000 thing as a way for the enemy to distract us from the work at hand. The work I am talking about is the harvest of unsaved souls that are around us and that need to know the Lord. If the Year 2000 takes lives, then what can we do to save lives (not just our own, but those around us)?

Finally, we are distracted from a powerful almighty God that we should be spending day and night learning and sharing more about. After the computers of the world are dead and buried, God will still be. We have seen what a mess life can be when we put into or own hands the answer to life's mathematics. Let's now turn the problem over to our Father in heaven and let Him have a go. It is time we decide to, "Trust in the Lord with all [our] heart[s] and lean not on [our] own understanding..." (Proverbs 3:5).